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myCOSMO-NExT Case: 2011 10 25

This case is about the formation of a powerful MCS system on the Ligurian Sea, embedded in a straight and very moist west-south-westerly flow aloft. This type MCS, classified as self auto regenerating cells, due to a peculiar equilibribrium between middle level dynamics and structure of the singular cells that are regenerating inside the storm, can last for several hours virtually on the same location producing a massive amount of rainfall at surface. These systems have a clear V-shape signature in satellite imagery due to a strong updraft core that usually penetrates in the stratosphere. The storm propagated from the sea to the Cinque Terre coastline (eastern Liguria) remaining almost stationary, along a convergence line, for about 6-8 hours. Precipitation was greater than 500mm with widespread damages and casualties. A similar system occurred 10 days later in Genova, about 100 Km more to the west. The Genova case is also discussed amongst the test cases. Below I have attached a PDF presentations about these two cases (in Italian..sorry) describing genesis characteristics of both cases and comparing also model performances.

Presentation given at the Codice Rosso Seminar.

Version 1

Overall quality of forecast: 8

The overall quality of the forecast is remarkable considering the intensity of the phenomena. COSMO 1km is able, apparently, to successfully reproduce the dynamics of the mesoscale convective system, developing most of the convection along a sharp low level convergence zone. This can be seen comparing the animation of the 1h precipitation forecast with the animation of the italian radar composite (see below). Also in terms of total rainfall the agreement with obs is remarkbly good, altough the model postioned the precip. max (387mm) a little bit far too inland (roughly over the Appennines) while the observed max (538mm) occurred a bit upstream in Val di Vara, a valley just behind a first chain of mountains facing the sea. More maps will follow....

HOURLY TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST VS RADAR ANIMATION (SRI)

pioggia oraria.gifComposite radar 2510.gif

COMPARISON OF 24H PRECIPITAION FORECAST VS OBSERVED PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS FROM REGIONAL GROUND STATIONS

c1 al RRRS24h.pngOsservato Dewetra.png

Version 2

Overall quality of forecast: ???

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Version 3

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Version n

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For a condensed summary of the assessment for this case as well as all other myCOSMO-NExT cases refer to the myCOSMO-NExT Overview page.

Note: This page is both world-readable and world-writeable.

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version 1 uploaded by FedericoGrazzini on 24 Oct 2013 - 12:46
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version 1 uploaded by FedericoGrazzini on 24 Oct 2013 - 13:33
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version 1 uploaded by FedericoGrazzini on 24 Oct 2013 - 13:24
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